Beyond the Numbers: What Australia's Migration Debate Means for Carers, Tradies and Skilled Workers

News · 2026-08-20 · 4 min read

If you follow news about Australia, you have probably noticed that the migration discussion keeps circling back to one thing: a target number. Should net overseas migration settle at 245,000? Should the permanent intake be cut to 130,000, which is what One Nation has put forward? Or should it be linked to the pace of home building, as the Coalition has suggested? The figures shift each time, but the question stays the same: more people coming in, or fewer.

Yet when business owners who rely on migrant workers share their views, they paint a different picture. For them, the bigger question is not how many people arrive. It is which skills they bring, and which industries they go into.

Caregiving: a sector where migrants already carry much of the load

Many of us know someone who works in caregiving overseas, so this example will feel familiar. Esha Oberoi, co-founder of Leora Healthcare, says her company has roughly 800 staff and that close to half of them hold a visa. She estimates that about one in six aged care workers across Australia are migrants.

The need is set to grow. Australia is expected to see close to 1.5 million more people over 65 enter the aged care system within a decade, and that change will call for hundreds of thousands of extra aged care workers. Care work runs on shifts and is tiring both physically and emotionally, and employers in the sector say few local workers are applying for these roles, which makes it hard to see the gap being filled by local hiring alone.

Building sites tell a similar story

Brad Duggan, CEO of Metricon, notes that whole trades such as plastering and rendering, among others, were largely built up over the years by particular migrant communities. In his view, these workers filled skill gaps left when a generation of young Australians was steered toward university instead.

Inquiries for new homes have fallen sharply this year. Even so, Duggan argues that the real limit on housing supply is not migrant labour. It is the lack of skilled tradespeople who are willing to do the job in the first place.

The twist in Duggan's argument

His comments point to an irony. For a generation, Australia encouraged school leavers to see tertiary study as the only reliable road to a secure career. On Duggan's reading, that thinned out the supply of trades workers, and migration later had to fill the hole. If he is right, tightening visas without fixing the skills pipeline would not solve anything. It would only take away the workaround.

Choosing the right skills, not cutting the total

Some of the strongest critics of a simple cut are not calling for open borders. They want smarter selection. Ruslan Kogan, founder of Kogan.com, came to Melbourne from Belarus as a child in 1989. He sees the issue as workforce planning rather than immigration: work out which skills the country will need, such as doctors, engineers, electricians and scientists, and then make the path easier for those people instead of arguing over a cap.

Graham Turner of Flight Centre, whose industry is less affected by migration rules than most, comes to a similar view by another route. With population growth slowing across the developed world, he sees migration as the main lever for national growth. For him, the risk lies less in the total number and more in whether the system brings in people who are equipped and willing to contribute to the economy.

How this can guide your next move

Across the different political camps, a common idea is emerging in these comments: that Australia's migration system should work more like a targeted recruitment tool and less like a tap turned up or down. If you are a skilled worker thinking about Australia, especially in aged care, healthcare, construction trades or engineering, this is worth noting. The business leaders quoted here expect demand in these fields to remain whatever happens to the headline NOM figure, and a system built around matching skills would tend to favour applicants who can show a clear, in-demand trade or qualification.

Your takeaway

Instead of worrying about which cap politicians agree on, focus on what you can control. Build your skills, and keep your certificates and work records in order, whether you are working in the Middle East or back home in the Philippines. In the end, the box you can tick may matter far more than the number in the headlines.

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