Is Australia's Skilled Points Test Rewarding the Right Things? What New Research Says

News · 2026-09-03 · 5 min read

If you have ever counted your points for an Australian skilled visa, you know how much each one matters. Most public talk about migration in Australia is about quantity: should more people come, or fewer? A more useful question gets far less attention. Among the migrants Australia already welcomes, is the system choosing the people most likely to do well?

New research says it is not. By following tax, Census and visa records across three decades, researchers found that the skilled migration points test, which decides who receives permanent residency, gives credit to some traits that do not help much and undervalues others that genuinely predict a migrant's long-term economic contribution. Because this system shapes the country's future workforce, skills mix and tax base, that gap is expensive.

Where Applicants Come From Has Changed

The test was created decades ago, when most applicants lived offshore and were starting their migration journey from zero. Today things look very different. Most points-tested visas now go to people already living in Australia, and a large share of them are former international students moving from a study visa toward permanent residency.

At the same time, a big and growing group of people keep moving from one bridging or temporary visa to the next, waiting without certainty. That is hard on the migrants and their families, and it adds strain to housing, public services and infrastructure that were never planned for this kind of waiting room.

Much of the trouble begins with this gap between what the test was built for and how it is used now.

Points That Do Not Predict Success

The researchers compared tax results with visa pathways from the early 2010s through to 2022. Their findings are uncomfortable for decision-makers: several criteria that earn points today show little or no link to how migrants perform economically, and a few are linked to worse results. These include:

Having studied at an Australian university
Regional study
Community language credentials
Specialist qualifications outside core regulated fields
"Professional year" programs

The international student route looks especially weak. People who came on a student visa and later went through the points system usually earn less, and are much more likely to work below their qualification level, than migrants who came through other channels. A category meant to reward local knowledge and integration may, for many applicants, be a slow and costly detour, and a cost to the system paying for it.

Deeper Than a Few Wrong Numbers

It would be easy to say the point values just need adjusting. The research points to three structural problems instead.

1. The weights are off. Age, education, English proficiency and relevant work experience have strong evidence behind them but count for less than they should, while low-value criteria still collect points.

2. One scale for every job. The same scoring is used across very different labour markets. It works fairly well for regulated professions like healthcare, where a qualification leads clearly to a job. It works badly for engineering and business, where networks, local hiring habits and market fit matter more than ticking boxes.

3. Useful information is ignored. Migrants already working in Australia are judged on the same blind criteria as first-time offshore applicants, even though years of real performance data exist for them. That signal goes to waste.

The Reform Choices on the Table

The research describes two credible options, each balancing simplicity against impact.

Option 1: Clean up the current test. Remove categories that predict nothing and give more weight to traits with real evidence: age, education, English proficiency and Australian work experience. It is a recalibration, not a rebuild, so it is easier to do and would still improve results without changing the system's basic design.

Option 2: Create two separate streams. This bolder option has the larger possible benefit. Applicants are divided by whether they are already active in the Australian labour market:

A skills-based stream for offshore applicants and recent graduates not yet working in Australia. It uses a traditional points model weighted toward age, education and English, and focuses on occupations where evidence shows migrants without local experience really do find skilled work, mostly regulated fields such as medicine.
A labour-market-experience stream for temporary visa holders already working in their nominated occupation. They would be assessed mainly on age and proven Australian earnings over the previous two years, rewarding people who have already shown what they can do locally.

The second stream mixes the thinking behind employer sponsorship with the flexibility of a points system, but ties it to something more dependable than paper credentials: real performance in Australia.

Why Workers and Families Should Care

A better points test is more than paperwork. Its effects reach across migration and education:

The permanent intake would lean toward people more likely to secure skilled jobs and contribute more tax.
The pull toward "visa chasing", choosing a course for points rather than real career or learning value, would fade.
Migrants and advisers would have a clearer path: build real strength in a regulated, in-demand occupation, or prove yourself in the Australian workplace, instead of guessing which extra credentials might tip the balance.

Australia's debate tends to focus on volume: how many people, how quickly to cut or grow. The bigger long-term lever is how well migrants are selected, not how many are accepted. Getting this right depends more on using existing data than on politics, and it could be worth billions in productivity and tax revenue over time.

Your Next Step

Whether you are an OFW in the Middle East, a student already in Australia, or still at home in the Philippines, focus on what research links to success: strong English, relevant work experience and solid qualifications in your field. Always check current visa rules on official government sources before making a decision.

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