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Why Australia's Own Projections Point to a Continuing Need for Migrant Workers

News · 2026-09-22 · 3 min read

If you are working in the Middle East or back home in the Philippines and dreaming of a job in Australia, you may have seen headlines about calls to cut migration. It is easy to feel worried. But the government's own long-term economic projections paint a different picture, and it helps to understand what they actually say.

Fewer babies, an older population

For half a century, Australia's fertility rate has stayed well below the “replacement” level of 2.1 births per woman. It is now around 1.5, and official projections expect it to drop further, to roughly 1.34, over the next four decades. Because of this, sometime in the mid-2060s deaths are expected to outnumber births in Australia for the first time in the country's modern history.

The current Treasurer, unlike some earlier governments, has clearly ruled out bringing back baby-bonus style incentives or telling Australians how to plan their families. That leaves migration as the main tool policymakers have to keep both the population and the workforce growing.

Who pays for an ageing Australia?

The issue comes down to simple maths. As more people retire, a smaller group of working-age taxpayers has to cover healthcare, pensions and aged care for a growing number of older Australians.

Economists track this with the “dependency ratio”, meaning how many people aged 65+ there are for every 100 Australians of working age. Today it is around 27 per 100. Under standard migration settings it is projected to reach 40 by the 2060s. With a reduced migration intake, it would go even higher, to 43 per 100.

When fewer workers support more retirees, services feel the strain and so does the federal budget. The government's long-term fiscal modelling shows what a lower-migration scenario would mean:

• The underlying deficit would grow from 1.8% of GDP to 2.4% by 2065-66.
• Government debt as a share of GDP would end up nearly 10 percentage points higher.

So, according to this modelling, the long-term cost of having too few migrants is far bigger than the cost critics usually point to.

What this means for workers hoping to go

For employers, agents and people planning to migrate, these projections say something about the long-term direction, whatever the short-term political noise:

• Skilled migration is treated as a national economic priority, not an optional extra. Treasury's baseline planning assumes net overseas migration of well over 200,000 people a year just to avoid worse fiscal outcomes.
• Migrant workers help keep the whole system running. Younger migrants of working age pay taxes now, while the ageing citizen population relies more heavily on services.
• Government language increasingly links multiculturalism with economic strategy, describing migration as something that strengthens the economy through skills, innovation and international ties, not just a way of adding people.

Staying calm when the headlines get loud

Migration tends to become an easy political target at every election. Yet the government's own long-range modelling makes an awkward point for critics: cutting migration would not ease pressure on the budget or public services, and would instead speed up the very demographic squeeze they say they are worried about. The original article concludes that Australia's economic future depends on sustained, well-managed migration.

For OFWs and other workers planning a move, the takeaway is to look past the noise. Keep building the skills and experience employers value, keep your documents in order, and always check official Australian government sources for current visa rules before you apply. Laban lang, and plan your next step with a clear head.

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