Why Australia's Long-Term Plan Counts on Workers From Overseas

News · 2026-09-22 · 4 min read

If you have ever wondered whether Australia really wants workers from abroad, a major government document has given a clear answer. Much of the news about the latest Intergenerational Report (IGR) has dwelt on deficits and gloomy budget figures. Read a little further, though, and there is a message that matters to anyone dreaming of a future overseas: Australia now accepts that it cannot keep itself going without steady, well-planned immigration.

Fewer babies, more retirees

Start with the basics. Based on the government's own official long-term modelling, by the 2060s the number of Australians dying each year will be greater than the number being born. Families there have been having fewer children than needed to replace the population for over half a century. The IGR has now lowered its fertility assumption once more: it was 1.62 children per woman in 2023, and it is expected to drop to just 1.34 by 2065-66.

Countries such as Japan, Germany, Italy and South Korea show where that road can lead, with economies that are already getting smaller as their people grow older. Australia is not travelling down that same road, and the report is open about the reason. It assumes net overseas migration (NOM) of 235,000 people each year, every year, for the next four decades.

That figure is not a small detail tucked away at the back. The whole 40-year economic forecast leans on it.

Young newcomers keep the workforce strong

One point in the report is easy to overlook. Migrants arriving in Australia have a median age of 26, while for people already living there the median age is 38. So newcomers do far more than raise the head count. They are the biggest single factor stopping the whole workforce from ageing too quickly.

Take migration away and the growth the report expects in the working-age population (15–64) would not happen. Australia is among the few developed nations that still expect their labour force to grow through the middle of the century, and it is migrants who are carrying nearly all of that load.

Good news for carers and health workers

For anyone with experience as a caregiver, nurse or health aide, whether in the Middle East or back home in the Philippines, this part of the report stands out. The IGR openly names a move toward a "care economy". Health, disability support (NDIS) and aged care are all set to grow as the population over 65 nearly doubles and the group aged over 85 nearly triples. These sectors have long depended heavily on migrant workers, from hands-on carers to the wider health workforce. If demand grows the way the report projects, care-related work is an area worth keeping an eye on.

What the hopeful projections rest on

The report also contains some encouraging figures: the economy doubling by 2065-66, real incomes 55% higher, and unemployment settling at around 4.25%. Every one of these depends on the same migration assumption. If yearly intake slows materially below 235,000, population ageing speeds up faster than the report's comfortable projections allow. Health and aged care costs are already flagged as a major driver of future government spending, and a smaller working-age tax base paying for them would mean that pressure arrives sooner and heavier.

Why politics still matters

There is a catch worth understanding. The IGR uses 235,000 NOM per year as its baseline, yet both the Coalition and One Nation have campaigned on cutting the migration intake to well under that level. That puts the economic modelling the government is backing in direct conflict with positions coming from the opposition benches.

For employers who depend on skilled visa pathways, for migration advisers, and for anyone hoping to make the move, the key figure across the next few election cycles is not the projected population of 39.3 million. It is whether the intake settings that make that projection possible can hold up against domestic politics.

What this means for you, kabayan

Put simply, Australia's official 40-year economic outlook is really a story about migration, with the economics added on. The report does not hedge here: it says migration gives Australia "demographic resilience" that its ageing peers lack. What remains uncertain is not whether migration stays central, but whether there will be enough political will to keep intake at the levels the modelling relies on over the next few elections.

If you are planning a move, keep yourself informed, keep your skills and papers in order, and always confirm visa details through official sources before you make any big decisions. Step by step, a well-prepared plan goes a long way.

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